Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the date (using US Eastern Time) on which Major League Baseball (MLB) and the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) reach a tentative agreement on the next Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), provided that agreement is subsequently ratified by both parties.

• If a tentative agreement is reached but fails to be ratified, that date will not count. The market will resolve to the date of the tentative agreement that is successfully ratified and goes into effect.

• The resolution date will be determined by official press releases from MLB or the MLBPA, or widely accepted reporting from major sports news outlets (such as ESPN, The Athletic, or the Associated Press).

Background

The current five-year MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), which ended the 99-day lockout in 2022, is scheduled to expire on December 1, 2026. Formal negotiations for the next CBA began in May 2026. Early discussions have highlighted major points of contention, including MLB's proposal of a hard salary cap and a salary floor, which the union has historically opposed.

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