Number of new posts in r/slatestarcodex exceeds 200 this month
25
21
resolved Feb 28
Resolved
YES
Market closes to resolved on Feb 28, 2022 23:59 IST Feb 26, 6:48pm: Do note that it the resolution time is in IST Feb 28, 2:38pm: Please don't post low quality posts to r/slatestarcodex in order to game this market. High quality posts that resemble the median post on r/slatestarcodex is fair play.
Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ1 of YES
@Gurkenglas But wouldn't that be unfair to market participants who might want to invest at the last moment. Anyways closing market now. Will read up on this and discuss later.
bought Ṁ152 of YES
A closed, unresolved market has the disadvantage that people can't cash out, but when we're talking about a 30-minute wait that doesn't really matter.
bought Ṁ40 of YES
Once the question that a market is about is obvious enough to answer that you wouldn't open a market about it, you should close the market about it, because so far Manifold does not distinguish between value of information at different points in time.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@Gurkenglas I fail to understand why ME stating facts would change the market opinion. The only risk I eliminated is me not being fair and resolving the market wrongly.Can you please explain?
bought Ṁ451 of YES
If you announce that you will resolve YES without closing the market, whales can pick up free money, and that money comes from those who predicted correctly.
sold Ṁ0 of YES
Will resolve the market to "YES" in 28 mins if there are no objections before that.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Makes sense
bought Ṁ1 of YES
The number of posts has exceeded 200 as of now if you count the announcement posts. This is without counting any removed/deleted posts. https://imgur.com/a/dqrBmyw I am going to resolve the market to "Yes". Any objections? @aps @JoshWight @SneakySly @WillianKelly @Lorenzo @Pepe
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Wording of the market implies that removed posts should count. Maybe someone should use pushshift or something else to see if removed/deleted posts push the count over 200.
bought Ṁ10 of NO
5 hours to go and it would require 3 more posts to reach 201 based on what William Kiely said.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@SneakySly Hoping nobody does that. I didn't think Manifold Markets users would be an inconvenience to people on the sub. Also don't think it is a good idea to have prediction markets that might cause inconvenience to others, so this will be my last market based on any Reddit sub with <500k members.
bought Ṁ30 of YES
This seems moveable.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
There are 195 posts so far in February IST. (The link above doesn't auto-update. I had to go to https://old.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/new/ and click "next" 7 times.) The first post is "Is it feasible for Scott Alexander to go on the Joe Rogan Podcast?" and the 195th is "Five Days of Resistance". With 10 hours to go, a linear extrapolation expects ~3-4 more posts, so ~198-199 total. 201 are needed to trigger positive resolution.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@Pepe Yes, the resolution time is indeed in IST.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
@Lorenzo I actually checked myself and made the same mistake as you lol. Even before you posted your message and then again after. I sold it for a slight loss; I don't mind.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@aps if you end up losing the M$50 because of trusting my message, happy to refund it with an ad-hoc market since it was technically market manipulation
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@Pepe is obviously correct. Initially it was an honest mistake, but then wanted to see if anyone would actually check. Updating upwards on the reliability of these markets. Still, should be relatively easy to trigger a yes by posting ~10 threads, but too lazy to do it. Thanks for checking!
bought Ṁ95 of NO
@Lorenzo your link shows there have been only 179, with the earliest being "Predictions For 2022". I assume we'll use the UTC post time but maybe @BlockchainMan can clarify, and it's 180 if we cound February in IST.
bought Ṁ50 of YES
Yeah. Surprised the market is being so slow to incorporate this information - should be at 100%! I put $50 on YES yesterday and I figure I'll put in some more.
bought Ṁ100 of YES
https://old.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/new/?count=175&after=t3_si4d98 there have already been 200 posts this month, right?

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