Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if Bitcoin's price decreases by more than 5% from its closing price on July 20, 2025, to its closing price on July 27, 2025. The percentage change is calculated as:

[ \text{Percentage Change} = \frac{\text{Closing Price on July 27, 2025} - \text{Closing Price on July 20, 2025}}{\text{Closing Price on July 20, 2025}} \times 100% ]

If the result is less than -5%, the market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No". Closing prices will be sourced from CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko.

Background

As of July 20, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $118,412. Over the past month, Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, reaching an all-time high of $120,318 on July 14, 2025, and a low of $105,724 on July 2, 2025. (exchange-rates.org)

Considerations

Bitcoin's price is influenced by various factors, including regulatory developments, macroeconomic trends, and market sentiment. Notably, in March 2025, the U.S. government established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, signaling increased institutional interest in Bitcoin. (en.wikipedia.org) Traders should monitor these factors, as they may impact Bitcoin's price trajectory in the coming week.