Background

A potential hostage deal between Israel and Hamas is currently being negotiated with mediation from the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt. The deal would involve a phased release of hostages, a ceasefire, and the eventual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Former President Trump and his designated Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff have been actively involved in pressuring Israel to accept the deal, warning of serious consequences if captives are not released before his inauguration.

Resolution Criteria

Each option will resolve independently based on the following criteria:

1. Hamas Power: Resolves YES if Hamas maintains official governing authority in Gaza after the deal's implementation. Resolves NO if Hamas is removed from power. Resolves N/A if the deal falls through.

2. Hamas Compliance: Resolves YES if Hamas fulfills its obligations under the final agreement for at least the first phase. Resolves NO if Hamas violates the terms. Resolves N/A if no deal is reached.

3. Israel Compliance: Resolves YES if Israel fulfills its obligations under the final agreement for at least the first phase. Resolves NO if Israel violates the terms. Resolves N/A if no deal is reached.

4. Philadelphi Corridor: Resolves YES if Israel maintains any military or police presence along the entire Philadelphi Corridor after the deal's implementation. Resolves NO if Israel fully withdraws. Resolves N/A if no deal is reached.

5. Trump Pressure: Resolves YES if Trump admits implicitly or explocitly that he pressured Israel to accept terms incompatible with the power balance at play. Resolves NO if such evidence does not emerge.

6. Valuable Return Offer: Resolves YES if there is credible reporting that Trump offered significant concessions to Israel in exchange for accepting the deal. Resolves NO if no such offer is reported. Resolves N/A if Trump did not pressure Israel.

7. Abraham Accords: Resolves YES if Trump specifically offered guaranteed continuation of the Abraham Accords. Resolves NO if this was not offered. Resolves N/A if no valuable return was offered.

8. Iran Action: Resolves YES if Trump specifically offered military action against Iran. Resolves NO if this was not offered. Resolves N/A if no valuable return was offered.

9. West Bank Annexation: Resolves YES if Trump specifically offered support for West Bank annexation. Resolves NO if this was not offered. Resolves N/A if no valuable return was offered.

Considerations

• The deal's terms are still being negotiated and may change

• Previous hostage deals have fallen through at the last minute

• Information about diplomatic negotiations and private offers may not become publicly available

• Resolution will rely on credible reporting from major news outlets and official statements from involved parties