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I agree Cameo is probably the right resolution, but can that be his next “primary income“? He will not be able to go to Vegas if Cameo is his only income. I mean how many people pay him for a greeting?

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Who's going to pay him for a book when there's already a legit biography "The Fabulist" optioned for HBO? https://deadline.com/2023/12/george-santos-movie-hbo-films-frank-rich-1235649730/

Maybe he'll go on OnlyFans and people will pay to NOT have to see it.

I think this one has to resolve NO even if he goes to prison because the resolution criteria ask what his next primary source of income will be, not just what will happen to him in some time frame.

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@OllieG I think this is a distinctly different answer that shouldn't count as the same thing

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how will his source of income be prison?

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This says "primary source of income", implying the most significant, yet there are multiple options here with >50% chance.

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@OllieG So will the other markets be resolved NO in that case?

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@OllieG I don't think you can resolve options as NO and then re-resolve them several months later as YES. You will need to make a decision within a certain week or so.

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@OllieG Ok, so it sounds like if George Santos gets a book deal in ~1 month, and it's not reported that he is also working for a lobbying firm, then the book deal option will be resolved YES, and all of the other ones will be resolved NO, correct? And perhaps it should say primary source(s) in case he gets a book deal and starts to work for a lobbying firm at the same time?

@MilfordHammerschmidt That suggests an arbitrage opportunity to bet no against all options that total over 100%.

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@OllieG I'll still predict No, I'm thinking that he'll be too disliked for a lobbying group to want to associate with him.

@OllieG Nah, I'm keeping it!

Viewer or model?

@mattyb It would have to be his primary source of income, per the description. I don't think being an OnlyFans viewer can get you an income.