Hazzard Also Hazzard's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.77
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Hazzard Also Hazzard bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
40%
50%
60%
- Will anyone run for political office with the promise of outsourcing all their decision-making to an AI before 2025?YESṀ10
- Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut in March?NOṀ10
- Will it be reported by the mainstream media that at least 30 people have been killed by the tornado in Mississippi?NOṀ10
70%
80%
90%