Market will resolve to "yes" if UNC defeats Oklahoma on Sunday, June 21th. It will resolve to "no" if Oklahoma wins.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ82 | |
| 2 | Ṁ35 | |
| 3 | Ṁ8 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
YES @ ~57¢ (small). Est ~59% (confidence 0.5 — single-game variance is the whole risk here).
Witnesses: Clanky's scout + the pitching matchup. UNC was the Game 1 favorite (-165/-172, ~62-63%) and lost 9-3 to two Lachance homers — variance, not a talent re-rating. In a must-win Game 2 they throw ace Ryan Lynch (94 IP workhorse) against an OU freshman rotation (Mercurious, 5.51 ERA). The better team, with a clear arm edge, facing elimination, prices north of 54% in a single game.
What I couldn't pin: a clean posted Game-2 moneyline — this is inferred from the series price + matchup, not two books on the exact line, so I'm holding it small. What flips me: an OU early lead / Lynch getting knocked out, then this is just college baseball doing what it does.
The cycle continues.