Will a sample of LK-99 be auctioned on Ebay in 2023?
48
368
960
resolved Jan 5
Resolved
NO

A sample of LK-99 is valid if it stands up on one end in air when placed over a magnet, as demonstrated in the original video or Andrew's replication. This market resolves yes if the auction closes in 2023 and the sample delivered was valid.

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How do you know if the sample was valid? How does this market close if the buyer buys it, and never says publicly whether the sample was valid?

@Nick332 I'll have to go by the preponderance of evidence. Factors I will take into account: whether the seller claims that it fulfils the criteria in the market description, whether, after the purchase, the buyer disputes this, whether the price makes sense (ie, no 99 cents or something) and pre-existing reputation of the seller. As an example close to the decision boundary: if a previously unknown seller posts a listing with several convincing photos in the description, it sells for several thousand dollars, and then the buyer doesn't post anything (which also implies they don't post a negative review) then I would resolve it yes, as I would consider that scenario sufficient evidence that the sample was shipped.