Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Elon Musk (or SpaceX) successfully launches the uncrewed Starship mission to Mars on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC.

If the mission is delayed to 2027 or later, is canceled, or does not successfully launch by the end of 2026, the market will resolve to NO.

Note on Ambiguity: Because "Elomusk's last project" is highly subjective, this market uses SpaceX's uncrewed Mars Starship launch as the default "last project" of 2026, as it represents the latest major publicly scheduled milestone on his 2026 roadmap. If the market creator intended to track a different major 2026 project (such as Tesla Cybercab initial production, Starlink V3 deployment, or another milestone), they are highly encouraged to edit these criteria. If no edits are made, the uncrewed Mars mission launch will remain the sole resolution standard.

Successful launch will be verified by official SpaceX announcements, Elon Musk's official X account, or reputable space news outlets such as Space.com or Spaceflight Now.

Background

Elon Musk has established several high-profile deadlines across his ventures for the year 2026:

• SpaceX Starship Mars Mission: SpaceX has targeted late 2026 for its first uncrewed Starship mission to Mars, utilizing the favorable Earth-Mars transfer window.

• Starship Payload & Starlink V3: Under SpaceX's S-1 IPO filings, Starship is scheduled to commence commercial payload delivery to orbit and begin deploying next-generation Starlink V3 satellites in the second half of 2026.

• Tesla Cybercab: Musk has repeatedly reaffirmed that Tesla's dedicated robotaxi (Cybercab) will enter its initial manufacturing phase in April 2026.

• Tesla Autonomy & Optimus: Tesla AI teams have been pushed toward a 2026 deadline for achieving unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) and advancing Optimus humanoid robots.

Musk has famously acknowledged his pattern of aggressive scheduling, noting that he intentionally designs deadlines with a roughly 50% probability of being met to act as a "forcing function" for speed and focus.

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