Would a clearer Gavin-Coup have YES'd?
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Ṁ50
Jul 3
52%
chance

Suppose Gavin had thought of a clearer phrasing for the description of:

We will simulate this by role-playing in these comments that it is Dec 2022 and Gavin has hired us to assist him turn his intent into objective words.

Gavin gets to roleplay as himself in Dec 2022. If he doesn't participate, I shall try to take his place. My initial guess is that this character is curious about the question in his head, so that he'd only pick a more objective, slightly different criterion if that somehow still gives him better data on the original question.

Would the description that we arrive at have resolved YES by now?

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@GavinMcCarthyBui, any opinions?

Gurkenglas says: What are serious effort or progress? Like, "Will that market reach x% for y time?"?