Will someone convince me that I would have resolved any of the previous 22 editions of "Is it happening?" "positively"?
"What about that hour in 2010 when that magic shooting star healed everyone who clapped their hands twice?" would count.
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Surely there would be cases where you would have paid M100,000 because there were other markets on manifold where you could quickly invest and make more than M100,000, even after the person sounding the alarm put as much mana as they could in those other markets.
For example, you can imagine there might have been a lot of "Will Osama Bin Laden be alive at X" markets and someone could have posted evidence that he was just killed.
@Joshua I wouldn't pay $1000 for M100,000. ...I would pay $1000 for M1,000,000.
That person sounding the alarm would get more than those few thousand mana tipping off a whale instead.