"The Arab American Institute, an advocacy group, says that since the start of the conflict, support by Arab Americans for the Democratic Party has plummeted from 59% in 2020 to just 17%." - Biden losing Arab-American voters in swing state
Will resolve YES if Biden loses the 2024 presidential election (electoral college) AND would have won if he received the same level of support from Muslim American voters as in the 2020 presidential election. I will review exit polls and news articles to resolve this question. I will not bet in this market. This question will resolve N/A if Biden loses AND I am unable to definitively determine if a decrease in Muslim American votes was enough of a factor. This question will resolve N/A if Biden is no longer the Democrat candidate for president.
"Early results showed that “uncommitted” had already received more support than the roughly 11,000 votes by which Mr. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s 2016 general election — the initial goal publicly set by the protest campaign’s organizers. Mr. Biden beat Mr. Trump by about 150,000 votes in Michigan in 2020."
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02/27/us/trump-biden-michigan-primary-election
"Trump won Michigan by less than one percentage point in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, and Biden narrowly won back the state in 2020, in part by increasing Democratic turnout. Recent battleground state polling from CNN shows West garnering 6 percent support in a match-up against Biden, Trump and fellow independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who received 20 percent support in the same survey.
Even single-digit support for third-party candidates in 2024 — especially in Michigan — could have an outsize impact on the winner in the presidential election."
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/22/cornel-west-arab-american-vote-00133137