Gravy's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.89
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Gravy bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- 17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?YESṀ100
- Will 'Everything Everywhere All At Once' win 5 or more Academy Awards?YESṀ20
- Will Scott Alexander/Astral Codex Ten receive coverage in a journalistic outlet in the next two months?YESṀ15
70%