Gorgn00b's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -15.59
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Gorgn00b bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
50%
- @IsaacKing and @DesTiny together manipulated @DesTiny's personal goal market to earn Ṁ16,000 profit. Will manifold users find that ethnical?NOṀ200
- Will the Unstable Diffusion team have their stripe funding interrupted?NOṀ15
- Will the Effective Altruism Movement experience another major scandal not related to FTX by the end of 2023?YESṀ10
60%
70%
80%
90%