On what date will Joe Biden drop out of the as a candidate in the US presidential election?
Basic
58
αΉ€25k
Oct 31
60%
Other
19%
Biden never drops out.
7%
July 29th
4%
July 20th
2%
July 14
2%
July 13
1.9%
July 12
1.8%
July 31
1.2%
July 20

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@williamgarvin I have changed your submitted answers to specific dates.

@GordanKnott

Changing them from entries that you explicitly said in the comments would resolve NO to entries that can resolve YES is not a good practice.

@GordanKnott

Particularly bad in this case since July 20th was already an entry. If Biden drops out on July 20, which resolves YES?

Ugh. If that happens I'll resolve NA to the whole thing

I thought your first ruling was fine. Why did you change it? Why not just edit the wording of the two problematic answers to "resolves NO"?

I'm now absurdly "confident" that he won't drop out on the 31st. I wouldn't have bet that way if you hadn't told me that that option would resolve NO.

But unless he drops out then it will resolve No.

If he steps down on 20th I'll resolve NA

Yes, but if he does drop out on 31st, I get screwed by the fact that you shifted the goalposts after I bet

I know it's unlikely but it's still very bad that it's possible after you clearly said it would resolve NO.

Also, the idea of NAing in the event of dropping out on 20th isn't ideal either. If you're going to NA, doing it now would be less egregious

Biden never drops out is only 7%???

now that someone added "before (certain date)" i think this is broken. If biden drops before the date then two options will need to resolve yes but aren't the answers linked (only one can be yes)?

you should do something about your resolution being logically impossible. I know you said you will just resolve the β€œbefore”’s as β€œno” but everyone betting on it is not seeing your comment saying that. It’s wrong to just leave these misleading options up here when you will resolve them opposite of their truths if they do occur.

July 31

@williamgarvin @GordanKnott

Can we get a ruling on how answers like these work? This is a linked MC market, designed to only resolve to one answer. How does the market resolve if Biden drops out on, say 20th July?

Is it possible to NA these new answers? Or do you plan to only resolve to a specific date (in which case these resolve to NO)?

I'm not going to resolve to a 'before' a date. The question is on what date. One answer. Everything else will be 'no'.

should prob delete or change them then

Is it my responsibility or the person who posted them?

I don’t know but I think it’s your call, if you wanna keep things consistent then you should do something

Gordan, just curious if the only answers that can be added are actual dates, like nobody can add "biden doesnt drop out"?

Basically just want to confirm that betting "no" on "other" is effectively betting that biden never drops out, thanks!

or will this be unresolved if he doesn't drop out

or should i add "biden never drops out"

bought αΉ€100 Other NO

i think ill just add it actually.

as soon as someone adds "biden never drops out" the only way that "other" could resolve "yes" is if biden drops out on a date not listed before resolution correct?

so "other" will resolve to "no" if biden never drops out OR any dates added are the correct date of his dropping out.

yeah im not sure what just happened. just added "biden never drops out", bought some of that and more of "no" on "other" and and everything was normal for a minute. profit showing on both, on "no" on "other" like 600 spent for 1500 potential. about a minute later it took away 2/3 of my potential payout on "other" and split it between "yes" on all the other options with 0 spent on any of them. and now im at 600 spent for 400 potential from "no" on "other" someone explain please. thank you.

ill eat the loss and you can keep everything the way it is i think, just trying to figure out how it works.

so if anyone had mana on "no" - "other" and someone added any answer then the potential profits from "no" - "other" are just moved to "yes" side of all other answers there at the time of a new answer creation?

@mods please can you tell me how to resolve July 4 as No?

you can't unfortunately

all options in a linked MC market must stay open until the entire market closes or resolves

I have seen it done on other markets. What did I do wrong?

those were probably unlinked markets, meaning they don't sum to 1

Ah, should I close as NA and make a new market?

No, it is fine as it is. you can see a similar market like https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/what-day-will-biden-drop-out where the options before july 5 are at 0.1% or something. they can't be resolved early but nobody's buying them so it doesn't matter much

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