Gonçalo M's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.91
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Gonçalo M bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $875.28 per share on March 15, 2024?YESṀ500
- Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $610.31 per share on February 2, 2024?YESṀ300
- Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $547.10 per share on January 19, 2024?YESṀ300