# Gonçalo M's calibration

Grade: A-, Score: -0.74

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Gonçalo M bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

3%

5%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

- Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 16, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?NOṀ150
- Will the S&P 500 close higher on October 6 than it closed on October 5?YESṀ100
- Will the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) close higher on November 14 than it closed on November 13th? [Ṁana Leaderboard]{DAILY}YESṀ100

90%

95%