Will Trump receive at least 60 million votes?
44
221
1k
2025
89%
chance

Will resolve YES/NO

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How does this resolve if Trump does not become the Republican nominee?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

There is still absolutely zero chance of this happening

predicts YES

@BTE absolutely zero chance of Trump receiving 81% of the votes that he got in 2020?

predicts NO

@SemioticRivalry As the incumbent before January 6 and the many trials that are forthcoming. As you know I don’t even think he makes it to the general election so that is also a major factor for me. But even if he does, he is no longer a candidate that can attract moderates or conservative democrats. He is embracing a national ban on abortion. He has nothing to offer except drama and retribution.

predicts YES

@BTE I just don't see how you can get to basically zero for something that has happened already twice for Trump- and both times he was already quite controversial, and there is little evidence that he is substantially more controversial now. And also for Romney, McCain, and Bush, with much lower populations.

bought Ṁ250 of NO

There aren't 60 million people who even like Trump in the US. Don't get me wrong, he is still the hero of 40-45 million, but that is his ceiling. There is absolutely nothing he could do short of stepping in front of a bus that would earn back the favor of enough of the haters to have a chance at 60 million.

bought Ṁ90 of NO

@BTE @Gigacasting odds are increasingly likely he gets zero votes.

bought Ṁ1 of YES
Last major candidates below this were John McCain (may he rest in…war) and the very forgettable John Kerry (supposedly the smarter candidate but actually got a lower SAT than W 🤔
bought Ṁ5 of NO
@Gigacasting But most candidates who don't run, or don't run as the Dem/Rep candidate, are well below this benchmark.
bought Ṁ200 of NO
@Gigacasting John Kerry was the worst candidate in history. He actually had worse grades at Yale than W too.