Will SBF plead guilty? (2023)
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470
resolved Nov 3
Resolved
NO

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This is going to sound stupid because I already resolved the 2033 one, but.....since this specifically says 2023, is there anything else he might plead guilty to in 2023? Is the context just as strong that this market also implies a direct connection to "whatever thing he is charged with first"?

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@Eliza IMO just resolving this NO would be totally justifiable too, but since I bought some YES in this probably I should explain myself. His trial got split up into two during this markets' existence with the second one planned for next year: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/15/investing/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-charges/index.html

@1941159478 I do think that is a strong enough argument to leave this open until the end of 2023. I also stand by the decision to resolve the other one with the 2033 end date as it had a strong context clue that it would be related to his first trial and the market participants demonstrated over a long period of time that they were committed to that specifically.

If someone else disagrees strongly with the idea of leaving this open until the end of 2023, I think you could still try to make the case.

predicted NO

@Eliza after creation of the markets I tagged many of them with a tag that specified "first trial" and nobody complained.

predicted NO

@Ernie this one is also so tagged

@Ernie

Interesting!

Has it been on there for some time? That looks like a good argument.

predicted NO

@Eliza yes months ever since I grouped them all well before trial started

I was worried we'd have hell to figure out which trial all the claims were referring to

@Eliza Kind of looks like Johnny Ten is going to lose that 50 mana on Yes. I think the tag's presence is enough to convince me!

predicted YES

@Eliza Can't blame a man for trying :)

bought Ṁ10 of NO