Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
closes Jan 1, 2024
Will GPT-4 exceed chatGPT interest? (2023)
36%
chance
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ConnorMcCormick avatar
Connor McCormick

So what happens if openai just upgrades ChatGPT to use gpt-4?

HarlanStewart avatar
Harlan Stewart

Within what period of time? (A good operationalization might be like "within 6 months of GPT-4 being officially announced" or something)

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack

what does this actually mean? does the term need to be "GPT-4"? chatGPT wasn't that much of a scaling or capability achievement compared to GPT-3 (not that making a usable product isn't important), but it got a lot more attention because it was very usable. Does this resolve YES if "GPT-4" gets 1/10th the attention of chatgpt but "ChatGPT-2 (based on gpt-4)" gets lots of attention a year after gpt-4 releases? etc

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonis predicting NO at 53%

@jacksonpolack pretty sure the specific search term needs to be "GPT4" or "GPT-4". Otherwise this market could resolve Yes for basically any future model release building on GPT-4 which will almost certainly resolve to Yes.

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonis predicting NO at 66%

This market currently has higher probability than the one below, even though the other question is easier to satisfy. I think people see "GPT-4" and their brains break. (Unless you all think GPT-4 won't be a strictly text based model)

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonis predicting NO at 55%

@jonsimon (the markets corrected themselves, ignore the above comment)