When you have a strong opinion do you bet for it or against it?
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For it, of course, I want to prove I'm right and get the prize
Against it, in this case, if I'm wrong, I'll have the consolation of some extra mana
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Category error. When I have a strong opinion, I still have it with a probability; I'll bet for it if the market's probability is lower than mine, and against it if the market's probability is higher, because that's the profit-maximizing path.