Explanation:

I talked to a few ppl (Stevo, Joshua, David) and between the four of us we had regret ranging from 0-50%. I don't think any of us would recommend the verified org status to anyone, but the $5k bonus ad credit pretty much negates all the issues we faced. $15k for $10k is a decent deal.

I personally don't regret it; I'd recommend it to others if it was a $15k for $10k deal.

pros: we got $15k ad credit total for the $10k paid ($5k paid out as an apology for the issues/bugs we had)

cons: gold check is cringe, might be causing less interaction on posts, the 2x reach is either fake or unnoticeable, a few hours of my time following up issues

Even though the regret is pretty small, regret is still regret, and the fact they plan to sell this product without the 10k credit some day is ludicrous lmao.

mm 😋 I love being right when everyone doubts me 🙃

(totally forgot this market existed! glad to hear the followup)

Update: some of my concerns have been addressed, there is still ongoing discussion, and we were granted an additional $5k ad credit for the (really bad) bugs that we had to deal with and the >1month it took to get a genuine response. Imo this negates most of the harm, but it will still be up to others on the team to decide as well - not just me!

How is it going?
It was listed on https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/manifold-team-march-retro-what-coul

@admissions So far there has been no measurable benefit and I have had to spend a nonzero amount of time complaining to support.

it will depend on the resolution of the complaint, but this far, low regret.

We were approved for Verified Org status! The close date has been extended 3 months & will decide then if we regret it. Will ask everyone on the team who frequently uses the twitter account their thoughts before resolving.

@Gen ?

@weissz I spoke to someone at twitter! The verified orgs conditions have changed, you can pay upfront $10k now and get instant $10k ad credit + 1 year gold checkmark.

They also showed me what it looks like for a verified org wanting to downgrade and the steps required. They have streamlined the process a bit, assuaged my major concerns, and we have applied to become a verified org.

If we get approved, the 3 months timer will start. I'm confident we won't regret it unless their ads platform/policies change significantly, or we see no benefit from the other features.

still considering this?

Why are you so sure any contract with Twitter will be honored in 3 months? As long as you are tossing $1000 bundles to someone who lights billions on fire for lulz, please also toss one my way, I'll stimulate US economy in my own little way.

@ClubmasterTransparent This is the problem, I wasn't sure! @SG suggested this market, which has made me... Less sure!

It is very difficult to quantify the benefits, and from what I understand it can be difficult to undo the change to verified org, if not totally irreversible.

@Gen

if not totally irreversible.

Yikes

@Sailfish There is definitely a way to undo it but it nukes a bunch of stuff. When you setup gold check everyone gets their own unique logins etc., and I don't know how it collapses back into a "normal" twitter account

Either way, it seems like a nightmare and I wouldn't recommend we buy it there isn't a lot of value in it

@Gen Yeah, assuming I value $1k of ad credit at $1k, I'd probably do this if I valued the checkmark at around $600/month. Otherwise I think your potential upside is way too small. I'd buy more YES on a longer term market, I think it's plausible / likely that this deal lasts three months and you will not have regretted it by the time this market closes. Maybe a market on how long the promotion will last?

@Sailfish Yeah we value $1k ad credit at $1k - at least for the time being. Significant changes to their ad platform/results/etc. would change this

"...Either way, it seems like a nightmare..."

yo - this seems like the biggest determining factor for regret full stop. I came to ask what might contribute to regret (for example, I've had memberships/subs to things that I didn't keep but didn't regret trying them out, or my time using them wasn't a loss, etc, I just stopped paying because I didn't see ongoing value). I imagine giving it a shot only having to jump through a bunch of hoops to back out would be really irritating at best, which twitter is probably banking on tbh.