Resolution Criteria:

1. Definition of Losing Status: A club is deemed to have lost its "Big Six" status when influential media outlets like BBC, Sky Sports, The Athletic, and pundits consistently refer to 'Big Five' (or lower) or other clubs have replaced one or more of the six clubs.

2. Resolution Method: The market resolves when a sustained narrative shift is evident across football media and fan discussions (like when Four became Six), as judged by me.

3. Tiebreaker Clause: If two or more clubs lose their "Big Six" status simultaneously, the market resolves equally among those clubs.

4. Timing: The market remains open until one or more clubs lose their Big Six status.

Historic Background

The traditional "Big Four" in the Premier League—Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool—expanded to a "Big Six" due to the rise of Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur in the 2010s.

• Manchester City's rise: Heavy investment from Sheikh Mansour since 2008 transformed City into a dominant force, and the club has won multiple league titles.

• Tottenham’s emergence: ENIC’s steady ownership and long-term investment strategy helped Spurs establish themselves among the elite, with infrastructural growth, including a world-class stadium.

With increased competition, finishing in the Champions League spots (top four) became tougher, solidifying a "Big Six" instead of the previous four.

- ChatGPT-4o