Did a LLM contribute “significantly” to the recent Minecraft mod-pack virus? | Manifold

Did a LLM contribute “significantly” to the recent Minecraft mod-pack virus?

5

174

Ṁ322

Ṁ90

Jun 9

15%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to the probability I assign after reviewing evidence in a year.

Information about the virus: https://github.com/fractureiser-investigation/fractureiser

My current probability for this is like 13%, but I know basically nothing about viruses, or how unusual this is. Its just kinda suspicious to me that such a nasty attack would happen so soon after ChatGPT is released. Also, I'm promising now not to bet in this market, except my original bet making the probability go to 13%.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Related questions

Will an agentized LLM cause some chaos?

By 2025, a large scale hacking attack relies heavily on LLM hacking capabilities.

Are LLMs more important than the fax machine?

[Metaculus] Will a major cyberattack/malware use LLMs in some important way before January 1st, 2025? [Ṁ1000 subsidy]

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?

Will LLMs be banned at the 2026 MIT Mystery Hunt?

Will there be a game that relies heavily on using LLMs during gameplay that would break 1 million sales before 2025?

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?