Now that the market probability can't get much lower, would it make sense to sell my shares early? (Using myself as an example for concreteness's sake.)

Like, it seems to me this would move returns a few days closer, at the expense of a tiny bit of Mana. Which in turn ought to increase the log growth rate of my total Mana.

And perhaps more interestingly, if everyone consistently acts this way, what does that do to the market probability? How does it differ from the probability given by a market where people only care about making as much expected profit as possible on this single market? If there's any mathematical/economic theory about this I'd be interested.

@Azai Selling of my position is unlikely to increase the growth rate as I don't really have anywhere better to spend my money, so I would expect that people with a lot of capital would bid down markets like these even if those that are more capital constrained sell off their positions. I don't think this would be much different compared to people trying to max expect profits with limited capital as they too would switch from less profitable markets to more profitable ones.

@NeonNuke Ah, that makes sense! Like, if there were a better place to put your Mana, then clever traders would soon take advantage of that (assuming efficient-enough markets), until that other place was about as good of a place to put Mana as this one.

I too can't seem to come up with an example where the resulting probability estimates would differ significantly from those resulting from agents trying to maximize the expected profit on a single market/trade.

12/18, 6,832.46s

• 20:29:24 - 22:13:13, 6229s

• 22:20:23.54 - 22:30:27, 603.46s

12/19 01:28:42 - Present, 327,000s

The probability has been < 69% for 3d 20h 43m 52.46s, 333,832.46s (54.3316152%). The market will necessarily resolve to NO.

≥ 69% for

• ≥ 3d 19h 20m 17.5s - Resolve to YES

• < 3d 19h 20m 17.5s - Resolve to NO

For the market to resolve to NO, the probability must remain < 69% for an additional duration of 1d 0h 26m 25.04s.

Total, 7d 2h 40m 35s, 614435s

12/18 19:19:25 - 12/25 22:00:00

< 69%, 2d 18h 53m 52.46s, 240832.46s (39.1957587%)

12/18, 6,832.46s

• 20:29:24 - 22:13:13, 6229s

• 22:20:23.54 - 22:30:27, 603.46 s

12/19, 234,000s

• 01:28:42 - Present, 234000 s