Resolves to the set of states won by the Democratic Party presidential candidate in 2024.
Due to bugs with the original implementation of this type of market, the first Maryland option had to be deleted. In its place is a "Maryland (2)" option, which will actually resolve according to Maryland's result in the election.
1,000
3.00...huh, I have no recollection of betting Massachusetts down
@EvanDaniel I'm leaning towards something like resolving based on election night reporting, with the option of re-resolving to actual votes by electors, but I'm not set on that and I'm open to suggestions. I'm hoping that Manifold will create a standard policy here that this market can just follow.
Definitely want to decide on this in plenty of time before the election, but I don't think this changes your predictions now, right?
@Gabrielle At the moment it doesn't matter, just trying to figure it out early!
Right now I'm trying to write a modeling program that does stuff with this and other markets. I'd like to know what assumptions I can safely make. For example, several of my derivative markets are defined to resolve exactly according to this one regardless of what mess happens, so that makes those easy to work with. (But maybe not if there are re-resolutions? I'd have to think about that.)
And some caveats are obvious, like I can assume that "not D" = "yes R" but that has failure modes and we can write obvious markets about "does any non-D / non-R candidate receive electoral votes". But I'd like to figure out what that market should look like, and make sure it correctly bridges any gaps between this one and whatever the electoral vote market I use is.
(Who knows how far this program will get, but I'm trying to take notes on my assumptions as I think about it.)
@EvanDaniel It's really cool that you're making derivative markets using this! That does make me lean away from re-resolutions, since they'll complicate any derivatives.
The safest thing is to wait until votes are certified, but the downside is that people can't get their mana out of markets, plus there will be two months of people asking for resolution. Maybe we could plan on immediate resolution for safe options (South Dakota going Republican, New York going Democratic) and delayed resolution for any states that might be disputed, though then we have to have some judgment about which states will be disputed.
One option here is to run a poll and see what people prefer. Relatedly, we could have another market about whether the immediate resolution and the late resolution would differ at all.
@Gabrielle Having the main / popular market attempt to resolve fast seems valuable. Markets about edge cases is definitely the direction I wanted to head, if we can do it well. I suspect there exists a good way to specify fast resolutions in some cases.
Having an EV count market that resolves exactly according to this one might be a useful approach.
My derivative markets are currently stuff like this:
/EvanDaniel/rust-belt-states-how-many-will-vote
@Gabrielle This might be overkill, but a resolution criterion that ought to satisfy any reasonable participant:
If a state is unanimously called by AP, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, and Fox News, if there is no outstanding lawsuit from a major campaign to delay, stop, or overturn the state's result certification, and if it's at least November 12, call the market.
If either of the first two conditions don't apply, call the market when the Electoral College officially votes.
Any participant who expects the real-world resolution to be done unfairly should price that into their market odds!
I've added the Maine and Nebraska statewide, Nebraska's 3rd congressional district, and a new Maryland option. Thanks to @JamesGrugett for enabling that!
Maryland (2) and Nebraska's 3nd district are the latest states added in the Surrealist America update
So is this one good to continue? Glitches are all gone? I think my profit is still bugged from it despite Maryland being N/Aed but maybe they can fix that manually?
@Joshua Other than Maryland being N/A’d still, it should be. Hopefully in the next few days I’ll get the market updated to allow me to add new options, and I’ll add a new Maryland option along with the other missing districts.