This market predicts whether France's 10-year government bond yield will exceed Italy's 10-year government bond yield at any point before October 15, 2025.

Context

As of August 28, 2025, Italy's 10Y bond yield is at 3.59%, while France's is at 3.51%, creating a spread of about 0.08 percentage points in Italy's favor. However, France's political instability and fiscal challenges have caused its spreads to widen significantly in recent weeks.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if at any point before October 15, 2025, the yield on France's 10-year government bond exceeds the yield on Italy's 10-year government bond, as reported by Trading Economics or another reputable financial data source (https://tradingeconomics.com/france/government-bond-yield and https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-bond-yield).

The market resolves to NO if France's 10Y bond yield remains below Italy's through October 15, 2025.