Will there be the use of nuclear weapons in 2022?

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https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-europe-moscow-2e4e1cf784f22b6afbe5a2f936725550 It would be irresponsible and anti-Bayesian to think that the risk of nuclear tensions went DOWN after this report from the AP. Mind you, the chance of an actual nuclear strike may still be minuscule, maybe less than the present 5%, but the direction of this bet should have actually gone up, not down, given recent developments. Perhaps the original probability should have been 0% and now it's at 0.1%. KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — In a dramatic escalation of East-West tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces put on high alert Sunday in response to what he called “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers. The order to put Russia’s nuclear weapons in an increased state of readiness for launch raised fears that the crisis could boil over into nuclear warfare, whether by design or miscalculation.

Perhaps, when "one country uses atomic weapons on the land of another country or disputed territory in the context of war", but really, you could just say when "one country uses atomic weapons in the context of war". I'd think a nuke hitting a warship in international waters should count.

@Duncan good question... didn't think of that. I'd say it's part of both as the war is ongoing. Or do you have another suggestion?

Sooo.... if Russia explodes a nuke in the Crimea....?

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