Will this market have more winners than losers at closing time?

resolved Mar 25

33

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I will check the "Positions" tab sorting by profits to resolve it.

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Jim Hays	Ṁ1,013
2	Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot	Ṁ185
3	Remi vise la mire	Ṁ134
4	Breeze ice	Ṁ68
5	higherLEVELING	Ṁ56

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Alex Rockwellpredicted NO at 81%

Profit amounts keep changing...

Pat Scottpredicted NO at 81%

@AlexRockwell WTH this is wildly unstable

Pat Scottpredicted NO at 81%

@Stralor every few minutes is totally different, often swinging between being in favor of YES or NO

Alex Rockwellpredicted NO at 81%

Did the last minute swing to positive still fail? Is it slow to update (mine updated but is everyones)? I'm not sure.

Theklabought Ṁ100 of NO

@AlexRockwell mine is the same as yours

Pat Scottbought Ṁ0 of NO

Time for YES holders to sell, hedge your losses 😈

Jim Haysbought Ṁ20 of YES

Keep an eye on this, Team YES

Pat Scottpredicted NO at 36%

@JimHays terrifying last bid!!

Jim Haysbought Ṁ10 of YES

@Stralor Didn’t boost it high enough

Jim Hayspredicted YES at 36%

Well played. I tried to sell again after checking the profits table but was a couple seconds slow

Pat Scottpredicted NO at 81%

@JimHays I was sooo worried about this happening. I think you overshot. There was a position around 55% where YESes would have it

Jim Hayspredicted YES at 81%

@Stralor How did you calculate it?

Pat Scottpredicted NO at 81%

mostly looking at where people bought in at. plenty of YESes below that and NOs above that. but it's dead reckoning, not perfectly sure

Pat Scottpredicted NO at 81%

@Stralor maybe we called it too early and my side is the one who lost! or if they keep shifting like this, maybe we'll all just nod and settle on N/A. weird stuff going on here

so what happens if there is a Tie? N/A ? Are Zero profit neither winning nor losing?

@ShitakiIntaki tie resolves to NO.

Zero profit counts, It counts to the side of tab it is showing. I believe that it is due rounding.

This is potentially paradoxical, no? Suppose there are 10 NO bettors and 1 YES bettor. If you resolve YES, there is 1 winner and 10 losers so you should have resolved NO. But if you resolve NO, the are 10 winners and 1 loser so it should have resolved YES.

The situation isn't much better if there are more YES bettors than NO. In that case whichever way you resolve is a self justifying.

Or have I misunderstood something?

@Fion the key here it the timing. It will be resolved by the positions at closing. It may occur that winners became losers after that.

@FranklinBaldo ah, I think I understand. So a "winner" is somebody with positive profits at close, not somebody who "wins" in the actual market?

@Fion exactly

Jim Hays bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 21% to 81%

Thekla bought Ṁ100 NO from 25% to 21%

Thekla bought Ṁ100 NO from 29% to 25%

Thekla bought Ṁ100 NO from 35% to 29%

Dan sold Ṁ8 YES from 36% to 35%

Pat Scott filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 40%

cloe bought Ṁ49 NO from 40% to 36%

Allan Lacy bought Ṁ5 NO at 40%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ10 YES from 39% to 40%

Renz bought Ṁ50 NO from 43% to 39%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ37/Ṁ41 YES at 43% (cancelled)

cloe bought Ṁ100 NO from 47% to 39%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ10 YES from 46% to 47%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ31 NO at 46% (cancelled)

Remi vise la mire bought Ṁ100 YES from 37% to 49%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ25/Ṁ27 YES at 37% (cancelled)

cloe bought Ṁ80 NO from 40% to 34%

Alex Rockwell bought Ṁ15 NO from 41% to 40%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ17 YES at 41% (cancelled)

Alex Rockwell bought Ṁ45 NO from 43% to 39%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ25 YES at 43% (cancelled)

Alex Rockwell bought Ṁ60 NO from 45% to 40%

Pat Scott created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 50% (cancelled)

Breeze ice bought Ṁ50 YES from 39% to 45%

Cris bought Ṁ10 NO from 40% to 39%

Cris sold Ṁ30 NO from 37% to 40%

Cris bought Ṁ10 NO from 38% to 37%

Cris bought Ṁ20 NO from 40% to 38%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ20 YES from 37% to 40%

Thekla bought Ṁ100 NO from 47% to 37%

Thekla bought Ṁ100 NO from 58% to 47%

Jim Hays sold Ṁ93 NO from 47% to 58%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ20 NO from 49% to 47%

Zoe bought Ṁ40 NO from 54% to 49%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ31 YES at 54% (cancelled)

cloe bought Ṁ45 NO from 57% to 51%

Franklin Baldo bought Ṁ40 NO from 62% to 57%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ59/Ṁ61 YES at 62% (cancelled)

Pat Scott bought Ṁ200 NO from 83% to 57%

Messy Bones bought Ṁ100 YES from 80% to 83%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ20 NO from 83% to 80%

Rahul Shah bought Ṁ2 YES at 83%

Rahul Shah bought Ṁ95 YES from 80% to 83%

Riley N bought Ṁ10 YES at 80%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ10 NO from 81% to 80%

Franklin Baldo bought Ṁ10 NO from 82% to 81%

audrey bought Ṁ100 YES from 79% to 82%

Franklin Baldo bought Ṁ10 NO from 80% to 79%

Dan bought Ṁ20 YES at 80%

Rickard Mårtensson bought Ṁ40 YES from 78% to 80%

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