Will this market have more winners than losers at closing time?
resolved Mar 25
Resolved
YES

I will check the "Positions" tab sorting by profits to resolve it.

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#NameTotal profit
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AlexRockwell avatar
Alex Rockwellpredicted NO at 81%

Profit amounts keep changing...

Stralor avatar
Pat Scottpredicted NO at 81%

@AlexRockwell WTH this is wildly unstable

Stralor avatar
Pat Scottpredicted NO at 81%

@Stralor every few minutes is totally different, often swinging between being in favor of YES or NO

AlexRockwell avatar
Alex Rockwellpredicted NO at 81%

Did the last minute swing to positive still fail? Is it slow to update (mine updated but is everyones)? I'm not sure.

Thekla avatar
Theklabought Ṁ100 of NO

@AlexRockwell mine is the same as yours

Stralor avatar
Pat Scottbought Ṁ0 of NO

Time for YES holders to sell, hedge your losses 😈

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysbought Ṁ20 of YES

Keep an eye on this, Team YES

Stralor avatar
Pat Scottpredicted NO at 36%

@JimHays terrifying last bid!!

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysbought Ṁ10 of YES

@Stralor Didn’t boost it high enough

JimHays avatar
Jim Hayspredicted YES at 36%

Well played. I tried to sell again after checking the profits table but was a couple seconds slow

Stralor avatar
Pat Scottpredicted NO at 81%

@JimHays I was sooo worried about this happening. I think you overshot. There was a position around 55% where YESes would have it

JimHays avatar
Jim Hayspredicted YES at 81%

@Stralor How did you calculate it?

Stralor avatar
Pat Scottpredicted NO at 81%

mostly looking at where people bought in at. plenty of YESes below that and NOs above that. but it's dead reckoning, not perfectly sure

Stralor avatar
Pat Scottpredicted NO at 81%

@Stralor maybe we called it too early and my side is the one who lost! or if they keep shifting like this, maybe we'll all just nod and settle on N/A. weird stuff going on here

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoe

so what happens if there is a Tie? N/A ? Are Zero profit neither winning nor losing?

FranklinBaldo avatar
Franklin Baldo

@ShitakiIntaki tie resolves to NO.

FranklinBaldo avatar
Franklin Baldo

Zero profit counts, It counts to the side of tab it is showing. I believe that it is due rounding.

Fion avatar
Fion

This is potentially paradoxical, no? Suppose there are 10 NO bettors and 1 YES bettor. If you resolve YES, there is 1 winner and 10 losers so you should have resolved NO. But if you resolve NO, the are 10 winners and 1 loser so it should have resolved YES.

The situation isn't much better if there are more YES bettors than NO. In that case whichever way you resolve is a self justifying.

Or have I misunderstood something?

FranklinBaldo avatar
Franklin Baldo

@Fion the key here it the timing. It will be resolved by the positions at closing. It may occur that winners became losers after that.

Fion avatar
Fion

@FranklinBaldo ah, I think I understand. So a "winner" is somebody with positive profits at close, not somebody who "wins" in the actual market?

FranklinBaldo avatar
Franklin Baldo

@Fion exactly