Will this market have more winners than losers at closing time?
33
56
670
resolved Mar 25
Resolved
YES

I will check the "Positions" tab sorting by profits to resolve it.

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predicted NO

Profit amounts keep changing...

predicted NO

@AlexRockwell WTH this is wildly unstable

predicted NO

@Stralor every few minutes is totally different, often swinging between being in favor of YES or NO

predicted NO

Did the last minute swing to positive still fail? Is it slow to update (mine updated but is everyones)? I'm not sure.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@AlexRockwell mine is the same as yours

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Time for YES holders to sell, hedge your losses 😈

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Keep an eye on this, Team YES

predicted NO

@JimHays terrifying last bid!!

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Stralor Didn’t boost it high enough

predicted YES

Well played. I tried to sell again after checking the profits table but was a couple seconds slow

predicted NO

@JimHays I was sooo worried about this happening. I think you overshot. There was a position around 55% where YESes would have it

predicted YES

@Stralor How did you calculate it?

predicted NO

mostly looking at where people bought in at. plenty of YESes below that and NOs above that. but it's dead reckoning, not perfectly sure

predicted NO

@Stralor maybe we called it too early and my side is the one who lost! or if they keep shifting like this, maybe we'll all just nod and settle on N/A. weird stuff going on here

so what happens if there is a Tie? N/A ? Are Zero profit neither winning nor losing?

@ShitakiIntaki tie resolves to NO.

Zero profit counts, It counts to the side of tab it is showing. I believe that it is due rounding.

This is potentially paradoxical, no? Suppose there are 10 NO bettors and 1 YES bettor. If you resolve YES, there is 1 winner and 10 losers so you should have resolved NO. But if you resolve NO, the are 10 winners and 1 loser so it should have resolved YES.

The situation isn't much better if there are more YES bettors than NO. In that case whichever way you resolve is a self justifying.

Or have I misunderstood something?

@Fion the key here it the timing. It will be resolved by the positions at closing. It may occur that winners became losers after that.

@FranklinBaldo ah, I think I understand. So a "winner" is somebody with positive profits at close, not somebody who "wins" in the actual market?

@Fion exactly