🏅 Top traders

Oops, I made an error and my bot tried to buy YES up to 1% instead of up to 99.9% :/

Tbh don’t know why people went all in on yes

@ThomasH Would’ve made more on no

@ThomasH Pretty confident you misunderstood the rules. It doesn’t resolve to “no” ever.

@ThomasH how so? The payout for No is zero

@jonsimon Oh lol well I hope I made y’all money

@ThomasH would've done no if I didn't already have a position:( but you right

(The payout for “no” is not zero either, it’s just always reduced by 10% on the margin, while for “yes” it’s always increased by 10%. Beyond the margin, you may hope someone else will drag it even deeper than you, or maybe you want to punish “yes” bets so bad you’re ready to pay extra. But overall, incentives point strongly upwards.)

@yaboi69 it's profitable to buy no so long as no one buys back up, something I realized too late :(

How? This is resolved PROB, and if you were the last person to bet, it resolves 10 percentage points above the level you moved it to, so you’ll lose mana. Manifold UI gives you the expected value for a binary win, but these numbers don’t apply here.

@RogerYang Like, maybe I’m wrong. I can test it. Give me a sec.

@RogerYang https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/test-market-please-ignore-1044938a8ea6 Bought M$10 (the UI showed an expectation of M$18 if a binary win happened), resolved 10 percentage points below, won back only M$8 (−M$1 profit).

(blame rounding)

@yaboi69 Believe you need a bigger swing for it to be profitable, ie 50 down to 10.

Hmm

@yaboi69 Maybe I'm wrong haha, but feel free to test

@RogerYang No, with high liquidity these things should work, e.g. a 90 percentage point move should 10× your bet (or something like that), rather than 1.1×. Maybe someone more fluent in market mechanics will comment.

WOW that was an exciting final minute

This is basic game theory guys. Everyone buy Yes and we all profit!