This market resolves YES if Zena Cardman gives birth before October 15th, 2026 absent a public denial that conception occurred prior to January 8th. Or the pregnancy is publicly confirmed by Cardman or NASA prior to that date with no explicit denial that conception occurred prior to January 8th, 2026. This market resolves NO, if an alternative medical condition explaining the evacuation is confirmed by NASA or the affected astronaut, or if Cardman continues to appear publicly in a manner that visually rules out the possibility of pregancy by October 15th, 2026.

This market resolves N/A if no affirmation or denial is made and no convincing evidence of pregnancy or non-pregnancy presents by October 15th, 2026.

Background

Zena Cardman is an American geobiologist and astronaut. She served as commander for NASA's SpaceX Crew-11 mission, which launched on August 1, 2025, to the International Space Station. Zena Cardman was evacuated from the ISS along with 3 other crewmates on January 16th, 2026 due to an as-of-yet undisclosed medical condition affecting an as-of-yet undisclosed member of those 4 crew. The decision to evacuate was announced on January 8th.