[Stormlight Archive] Who will be [Bqvhz'f Punzcvba] in book 5?
10
144
Dec 6
4%
Dalinar
15%
Gavinor
0.5%
Oroden
11%
Nale
0.2%
Dai-Gonarthis
17%
El
28%
Vyre
0.2%
Leshwi
4%
No-one
0.3%
One of the Unmade
3%
Zellion
3%
Zahel / Vasher
11%
Adolin

When I finish reading the fifth Stormlight novel, I will resolve this to the identity of Odium's Champion. Last I heard, the plan was for it to be published in December of 2024, and I've consistently read these within a month of publication in the past, so this market will probably resolve in late December 2024 or early January 2025. Proposed answers should consist of the name of a character, though I may allow exceptions such as "No one" if it seems appropriate.

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It will initially look like it's Gavinor, but at the last moment Adolin will show up, having learned the reason for Recreance, and he will be Odium's Champion. Dalinar will defeat him, but will not be able to bring himself to kill his own son, thereby breaking the contract and releasing Odium who will drop an asteroid on Roshar as a departing middle finger(leaving to somewhere else in Cosmere), which will cause such atmospheric disturbances that highstorm will cease to occur, and stormlight will be very hard to obtain.

@IdkIdc Bro has the diagram

@Forrest can you remake this using the current multiple choice market format? These old parimutual markets where you can't short options are way worse

@Joshua Last time I thought about it I had the idea that they were going to convert these, but I guess that's not actually likely to be any time soon, so here: https://manifold.markets/Forrest/stormlight-archive-who-will-be-bqvh

Beginning of the book, or the end?

@JiSK During the agreed-upon contest of champions, if it occurs during the book.

Otherwise, the last character Odium names as his champion during the book.

answered
Vyre

I wish I could buy 'no'

bought Ṁ20 of El

I wish I could buy 'no' on Vyre

@MordecaiWeynberg you can't delete your own comments that's dum

answered
One of the Unmade
@Forrest Fair enough. I don't think any of them individually are likely enough to bet on them, but if someone submits it I might. It would probably need to be Bo-Ado-Mishram or Sja-anat, but neither seem more than 5% IMO
answered
One of the Unmade
@LivInTheLookingGlass In the case of overlapping answers, I will prefer ones that uniquely identify a character. Therefore, I intend to only resolve to this answer if Odium's champion is one of the Unmade who isn't mentioned individually as an answer on this market.
I'm confused by the title here. Is the bit in brackets some kind of code?
@MattP rot13, a common spoiler method https://rot13.com/
answered
No-one
I will resolve to this answer if Odium does not pick a champion in book 5
answered
Vyre
This refers to the character known as Vyre at the end of Rhythm of War

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