Will credible reports emerge that by July 11, Obama was actively working to convince Biden not to seek re-election?
Mini
2
105
2025
80%
chance

Will credible reports emerge by the end of 2024 that Barack Obama was actively working to get President Biden not to seek re-election by July 11, 2024?

Credible reports include:
- Statements from reputable news sources with multiple unnamed officials or sources close to Obama or Biden, citing specific actions they believe Obama took
- On the record comments from Democratic Party leaders, or Obama administration officials, or Obama himself
- Investigative reports, etc
Accusations from Biden campaign or denials from Obama campaign themselves will not be enough to close the market.

Actively working includes:
- Direct communication with Biden or his inner circle to encourage him to step down
- Coordinating pressure, including organizing influential Democrats to approach Bien about not running
- Participating in strategy sessions about how to convince Biden to drop out

Note: Current reporting that Obama did not discourage Clooney from writing his op-ed are neither in credible enough sources, nor active enough (if it was only not discouraging).

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