Will this market stabilize below 90% for an hour?

Basic

Ṁ2856

resolved Apr 2

Resolved

YES

ALL

This market resolves YES if there is a (uninterrupted) hour period where the following conditions hold:

the market is below 90% for the whole hour
the largest market value during that hour is at most 10% higher than the lowest market value during that hour.
the market is open during the whole hour (this should be obvious, but let's make it explicit)

The market will resolve NO if this hasn't happened at the closing time (a bit more than 1 week after creation).

This market will stay open for at least 1 minute after the YES condition has been triggered, allowing anyone (including me) to profit off this.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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9 Comments

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It was at 89% for 1:02:35, so I'm resolving this YES

There are currently no NO stakeholders, and I'm unwilling to come back to this market twice an hour, so this might just fizzle out.

I'm not sure if this market should really be worth this much. I could easily see it fluctuating at a much lower percentage, if it had more activity.

I'm tired of being the one being required to make the changes, so I sold off my NO portofolio at a small loss. I hope @AlexbGoode is paying attention, because they're now betting NO 😂

You were going in with some pretty big bets...

However, if it remains just the two of us, this will almost certainly resolve YES, since I won't bet every hour.

I have made a terrible mistake 😅

I hope someone will buy NO within 45 minutes to make this more interesting :-)

@FlorisvanDoorn I have seen people set starting conditions in order to avoid resolving it simple because no one noticed the market

predicted YES

@AlexbGoode Yes, I considered something like "the first day doesn't count" for some markets.
I think I'll try to lengthen some of my markets at the start, even at a slight loss.

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn makes sense to me

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