Will there be an even number of big swings in this market?
Will there be an even number of big swings in this market?
17
290Ṁ3237resolved Apr 8
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market only resolves at the closing time (a bit less than a week after opening). At that time, I will count the number of trades that changed the displayed market rate by at least 30%. If that number is even, this market resolves YES. If that number is odd, this market resolves NO.
0 is even.
Will this market be incredibly volatile? I don't know!
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To my best knowledge there are exactly 4 trades that changed the percentage by 30% or more
I'll give everyone a little time to object to this count before I resolve this market.
@AlexbGoode Haha. I have no idea what will happen here, except that I expect that there will be a lot of trades near the closing time.
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People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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