Resolution Criteria

Nvidia reports earnings on February 25, 2026 after market close. This market resolves YES if Nvidia's stock price closes lower on February 26, 2026 than it closed on February 25, 2026. Resolution will be verified using MarketWatch NVDA stock price data.

Background

Analysts expect earnings of $1.53 per share on revenue of $65.7 billion. Nvidia reported record quarterly revenue of $57 billion in Q3 2026, with the data center segment contributing $51 billion. Options pricing suggests traders expect a +/- 5.5% move in NVDA stock on the earnings release.

Considerations

In the previous earnings report, despite strong results, the stock closed lower the next day, falling from $186.52 to $180.64. Historical data shows no significant correlation between the magnitude of earnings beats and stock price performance after earnings release. Forward guidance and commentary on Blackwell production ramp and gross margins typically matter more than current quarter results for stock reaction.