Will any of the top-48 longest streak holders lose their streak before October 2023?

301

Ṁ6.2k

Ṁ490

resolved Aug 5

Resolved

YES

ALL

I recently learned how to find users' streaks from the API (thanks to Chris Billington) and was surprised to find myself at No. 50. Since then (two days ago) I've moved up to 49 because somebody above me lost their streak. Will this happen again before October?

I'll resolve a couple of days late. Partly because I can't quite get my head around time zones and partly because if you resolved immediately you wouldn't be able to tell the difference between somebody who's just not refreshed their streak yet and somebody who was in the process of losing it.

Bots are excluded.

I may bet in this market.

Edit: Turns out "streak forgiveness" is a thing: an automatic feature where if you miss a day, rather than your streak resetting, your "streak forgiveness" goes down by one, with your streak only resetting if your "streak forgiveness" reaches zero. You get one "streak forgiveness" each month. I think the best thing for me to do is to run the API code a couple of times on the 30th September and 1st October, and maybe once on 2nd October. Hopefully the list of streaks will be the same in all runs (up to a day or two), but if not, and if somebody has dropped out of the top 48 over the course of those few runs, I'll try and work out when they actually lost their streak. If I can't determine for sure whether they dropped before the end of 30th September (my timezone, UK), I may resolve PROB. If I do this, I'll explain my evidence, my reasoning, and the percentage I intend to resolve to, and give a chance for people to point out any mistakes I may have made.

(A previous version of the description had something about "if Manifold introduce streak freezes or similar". I've taken it out now that I know about "streak forgiveness", but some comments might seem weird out of context now. I think you can view the edit history of the description.)

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ169
2		Ṁ19
3		Ṁ17
4		Ṁ12
5		Ṁ9

19 Comments

21 Holders

79 Trades

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bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Pretty sure this resolves YES. Samin appears to have lost their streak.

355 jack
352 SG
352 MartinRandall
351 FranklinBaldo
350 Chocobo
349 Predictor
348 egroj
346 SneakySly
333 ScottLawrence
332 NcyRocks
326 BoltonBailey
320 citrinitas
317 Conflux
292 JoshuaB
292 BTE
288 Ivan
280 zzq
274 Zardoru
271 NicoDelon
270 A
268 DavidMathers
267 omnishambles
267 RSWats
264 Agh
263 UFTG
263 Gabrielle
262 MarcusAbramovitch
261 na_pewno
260 XComhghall
259 wadimiusz
259 NexVeridian
258 xCrimson
258 harfe
258 OrbiterVoltron
256 Rocks
255 lisamarsh
253 GoodGrief
251 Tripping
250 YourHero
249 nickten
249 PunishedFurry
248 MattReardon
248 JeffreyHeninger
248 Duncn
245 AndrewG
242 kenakofer
234 RJPerez
231 Fion
230 NathanNguyen
230 Lovre
230 Dustin
229 kottsiek

Any objections?

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@Fion Don't really know why I asked for objections. I don't think there's any reason to delay resolution. In the unlikely event something has gone horribly wrong we can get it re-resolved.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Revelations about streak forgiveness should probably decrease the probability a bit.

predicted YES

@Fion you agree with excluding bots? Does this market depend on you keeping your streak (i.e. staying at 49 or higher in the ranking)?

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@ianminds Yes, bots are excluded - I'll edit the description to make that explicit. This market's resolution doesn't depend on me keeping my streak.

(Although I do have a market for that:

)

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Following uncertainty about whether streak saves do in fact exist, I've created a market for it:

predicted YES

Here's the current top 49 streaks, this is excluding bots:

1: 346 jack

2: 343 SG

3: 343 MartinRandall

4: 342 egroj

5: 342 FranklinBaldo

6: 342 Chocobo

7: 340 Predictor

8: 338 SneakySly

9: 324 ScottLawrence

10: 324 NcyRocks

11: 318 BoltonBailey

12: 311 citrinitas

13: 308 Conflux

14: 282 JoshuaB

15: 282 BTE

16: 280 Ivan

17: 271 zzq

18: 264 Zardoru

19: 262 NicoDelon

20: 261 A

21: 258 omnishambles

22: 258 RSWats

23: 258 DavidMathers

24: 256 Gabrielle

25: 255 UFTG

26: 254 MarcusAbramovitch

27: 254 Agh

28: 252 wadimiusz

29: 252 na_pewno

30: 252 XComhghall

31: 250 NexVeridian

32: 249 xCrimson

33: 249 harfe

34: 249 OrbiterVoltron

35: 247 Rocks

36: 246 lisamarsh

37: 243 GoodGrief

38: 242 Tripping

39: 241 YourHero

40: 241 PunishedFurry

41: 240 nickten

42: 240 MattReardon

43: 239 JeffreyHeninger

44: 239 Duncn

45: 236 AndrewG

46: 232 kenakofer

47: 227 RJPerez

48: 223 Samin

49: 223 Fion

bought Ṁ16 of YES

@chrisjbillington Could you post your code?

sold Ṁ34 of YES

@ianminds Here 'tis (with the output from when I first ran it a few days ago - not the same as above):

https://gist.github.com/chrisjbillington/260114bf0d0ad99127ae53de64308a72

Script to list manifold users with streaks ≥ 200

Script to list manifold users with streaks ≥ 200. GitHub Gist: instantly share code, notes, and snippets.

What’s your current streak?

@Tyler31 223

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Aren't there already streak saves?

@chrisjbillington Are there? Oh dear. I can't seem to find out any information about them. Is this something that only comes up if you lose your streak? Maybe I should use an alt to experiment...

predicted YES

@Fion Hm, I thought there were, but @DavidKochanov, who is the user that fell out of the top 50 appears to have only skipped one day and yet now has a streak of 1. Perhaps no streak loss forgiveness after all. I swear I read something about this.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

@chrisjbillington I read the same; what I heard was you get 1 token per month of streak...

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@ianminds you do, but that doesn't mean people don't use them up

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@ianminds I haven't seen that option for over a month or so. No idea if it is still a thing.
Not going to break my 194 day streak to test it either lol.