I recently learned how to find users' streaks from the API (thanks to Chris Billington) and was surprised to find myself at No. 50. Since then (two days ago) I've moved up to 49 because somebody above me lost their streak. Will this happen again before October?

I'll resolve a couple of days late. Partly because I can't quite get my head around time zones and partly because if you resolved immediately you wouldn't be able to tell the difference between somebody who's just not refreshed their streak yet and somebody who was in the process of losing it.

Bots are excluded.

I may bet in this market.

Edit: Turns out "streak forgiveness" is a thing: an automatic feature where if you miss a day, rather than your streak resetting, your "streak forgiveness" goes down by one, with your streak only resetting if your "streak forgiveness" reaches zero. You get one "streak forgiveness" each month. I think the best thing for me to do is to run the API code a couple of times on the 30th September and 1st October, and maybe once on 2nd October. Hopefully the list of streaks will be the same in all runs (up to a day or two), but if not, and if somebody has dropped out of the top 48 over the course of those few runs, I'll try and work out when they actually lost their streak. If I can't determine for sure whether they dropped before the end of 30th September (my timezone, UK), I may resolve PROB. If I do this, I'll explain my evidence, my reasoning, and the percentage I intend to resolve to, and give a chance for people to point out any mistakes I may have made.

(A previous version of the description had something about "if Manifold introduce streak freezes or similar". I've taken it out now that I know about "streak forgiveness", but some comments might seem weird out of context now. I think you can view the edit history of the description.)