How many users will have a 300-day Manifold streak on 19th May 2024?
8
111
435
resolved May 19
100%97%
80-119
0.0%
Less than 40
0.9%
40-79
1.9%
120-159
0.0%
160-199
0.0%
200-263
0.0%
More than 263

When I ran my version of @chrisjbillington's manifold-streakers code just now I got 40 Manifold users with streaks of over 300 days.

How many will there be on 19th May 2024? (225 days from now)

(There are currently 257 users with streaks >= 75, and 263 users with streaks >= 74, so I think it's literally impossible for there to be more than 263. I've left it as an option just in case I'm wrong.)

I will run the code at an effectively random time on 19th May. If it's very close to the top of a range, I will run it again later in the day. If the number of 300-day-ers falls in different ranges in the two runs, I will resolve to 50% for each. I'm in GMT and I won't stay up late to make sure I include all timezones, so some people on the west coast of the USA might get "left out". You'll have to take this into account with your betting, but there are several unlikely events that would have to align for this to be a problem. I guess it's possible in principle for me to manipulate the resolution by choosing what time to run my code, so I will close the market on the 18th so that I can't be tempted to manipulate.

I will trade in this market.

If Manifold abolishes streaks, or makes it impossible for me to find this information in the API, this market resolves NA.

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Ran my code just now and got 102 users with a streak >= 300. Conveniently this is right in the middle of a range, so nothing complicated.

Is it right that you will resolve this market based on the output of your code?

Maybe you can share the code that you run some the people who participate in this market can see how exactly the result will be calculated.

@bessarabov good point. I'm happy to send my code on request. Unfortunately I don't really know how to use GitHub properly so it'll probably be a case of emailing somebody the script. Alternatively, I think @chrisjbillington's code might be on GitHub?

However, there is still the issue of the exact time the code is run. I think I would like to keep control over that as laid out in the description just to avoid making it any more complicated than it needs to be. So other people can try the code and check it does the right thing, but resolution is determined by my run of it.

@Fion Yep, my code is here:

https://gist.github.com/chrisjbillington/260114bf0d0ad99127ae53de64308a72

To be nice to Manifold, suggest updating the API URL from

https://manifold.markets/api/v0/users

to

https://api.manifold.markets/v0/users

The old one is still supported but costs them more money when people use it because it's hosted on more expensive servers.