Fion's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.17
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Fion bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?NOṀ565
- At the next UK general election, will Labour be promising to block all new North Sea oil and gas exploration?YESṀ500
- Will the Liberal Democrats be the third-largest party at the next UK general election (third-largest number of seats)?YESṀ400
90%
- Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?NOṀ1,100
- Will the Liberal Democrats be the third-largest party at the next UK general election (third-largest number of seats)?YESṀ1,000
- Will the Liberal Democrats be the third-largest party at the next UK general election (third-largest number of seats)?YESṀ600
95%
- If Jeremy Corbyn is prevented from standing as a Labour candidate in the next UK general election, will he stand as a non-Labour candidate?YESṀ1,500
- Will Sir Keir Starmer (Labour Party) be the UK's next prime minister?YESṀ1,000
- Will the party endorsed by the Sun newspaper win the next UK general election?YESṀ1,000
97%