Fion's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Fion bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
1%
10%
- Will Donald Trump’s prediction of his arrest “by Tuesday” (03/21/2023) occur?NOṀ10
- Will the linked [21% 70%] interval market close above 70%?NOṀ5
- Will Tesla announce and execute a layoff of more than 10% of its workers by the end of Q1 2023?NOṀ5
- Will Donald Trump’s prediction of his arrest “by Tuesday” (03/21/2023) occur?NOṀ5
- Will there be any surprise world events flipping an end-of-2022 market?YESṀ4
- Will this market have more YES holders than NO?NOṀ2
- Will this market attract more than 100 users in 2022?NOṀ1
- Will the linked [21%, 70%] market close below 21%?NOṀ1
20%
- Will Donald Trump’s prediction of his arrest “by Tuesday” (03/21/2023) occur?NOṀ15
- Will there be any surprise world events flipping an end-of-2022 market?YESṀ10
- Will Trump be arrested on Tuesday, March 21, 2023?NOṀ10
- Will Trump be arrested on Tuesday, March 21, 2023?NOṀ10
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ10
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ10
- Will Trump be arrested on Tuesday, March 21, 2023?NOṀ6
- Will this market have more users than % yes when it closes?NOṀ6
- Will the linked [21% 70%] interval market close above 70%?NOṀ5
- Will Donald Trump’s prediction of his arrest “by Tuesday” (03/21/2023) occur?NOṀ4
30%
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ50
- Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market?YESṀ30
- If market close at multiples of 10 this market resolves to YES, otherwise resolves to NONOṀ18
- Will Black win in Manifold Plays Chess, Pt. 2?NOṀ10
- Will Manifold guess the character I am thinking of?YESṀ4
- Will this market have more YES holders than NO?NOṀ2
- If market close at multiples of 10 this market resolves to YES, otherwise resolves to NONOṀ1
- Will this market close at 30%?NOṀ1
40%
- Will this market close below 45%?YESṀ20
- This market resolves to NO if there's at least two people holding 157 YES shares, otherwise it resolves YES.NOṀ10
- Will this market have more holders than likes at closing date?YESṀ10
- Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market?YESṀ10
- Will the "Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?" and "China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022" markets resolve differently?NOṀ10
- Will the "Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?" and "China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022" markets resolve differently?NOṀ10
- Will the "Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?" and "China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022" markets resolve differently?NOṀ10
- Will the "Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?" and "China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022" markets resolve differently?NOṀ10
- Will the "Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?" and "China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022" markets resolve differently?NOṀ10
- Will the "Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?" and "China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022" markets resolve differently?NOṀ10
50%
- Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?NOṀ200
- Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?NOṀ150
- Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?NOṀ150
- This market resolves to NO if there's at least two people holding 157 YES shares, otherwise it resolves YES.NOṀ61
- Split or Steal: Can two randomly-chosen shareholders cooperate?NOṀ37
- Will this market close at an odd percentage?NOṀ20
- Will this market close at an odd percentage?NOṀ16
- Will this market be at <50% when it closes?NOṀ15
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ12
- Will I have more followers than @levifinkelstein at the 10th of january?NOṀ10
60%
- Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?NOṀ270
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ100
- Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?NOṀ80
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ80
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ52
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ50
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ50
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ50
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ50
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ30
70%
- Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?NOṀ354
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ100
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ50
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ50
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ35
- Will the linked market by levi finkelstein resolve YES?YESṀ30
- Will the linked market by levi finkelstein resolve YES?YESṀ30
- Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.YESṀ30
- Will there be at least 10 new markets relating to Judaism or Jews by March 2023?YESṀ21
- Will the linked market by levi finkelstein resolve YES?YESṀ20
80%
- Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?NOṀ565
- Will Gary Lineker present Match of the Day on 18 March 2023?YESṀ60
- Will Gary Lineker present Match of the Day on 18 March 2023?YESṀ50
- Will I have 90 followers by the end of 2022?YESṀ49
- Will I get a traunche for Christmas?YESṀ30
- Will I have 90 followers by the end of 2022?YESṀ13
- Are women physically weaker than men on average?YESṀ10
- Will <<Will "Resolves YES. I will buy 5 mana of NO every time a new user (to this market) places a trade." be at 97.5% or more when it resolves?>> be at 89.5% or more when it closes?NOṀ10
- Will I get a traunche for Christmas?YESṀ10
- Will I get a traunche for Christmas?YESṀ10
90%
- Will the linked market by levi finkelstein resolve YES?YESṀ100
- I've decided on a number between 1 and 900. Market resolves YES if someone writes it in the comments. Market closes January 3rd.YESṀ70
- Will Vladimir Zelenskyy meet King Charles while visiting UK?YESṀ50
- Will this market have more holders than likes at closing date?YESṀ31
- Random walk market, free money, see descriptionYESṀ20
- Will 'Everything Everywhere All At Once' win multiple Academy Awards?YESṀ10
- Will "Resolves YES. I will buy 5 mana of NO every time a new user (to this market) places a trade." be at 97.5% or more when it resolves?NOṀ10
95%
- Will I be top #3 for weekly market creation by next weekYESṀ300
- Will this market stay above 80% for at least 1 hour?YESṀ300
- Will Gary Lineker present Match of the Day on 18 March 2023?YESṀ220
- Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK at the start of 2023?YESṀ110
- Will I have 15 followers or more on February 10th?YESṀ100
- Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland on 31 December 2022?YESṀ85
- Will Vladimir Zelenskyy meet King Charles while visiting UK?YESṀ50
- Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK at the start of 2023?YESṀ41
- Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK at the start of 2023?YESṀ40
- Will Gary Lineker present Match of the Day on 18 March 2023?YESṀ30
97%
- Will this market have a bot account bet on it before close && will this market have at least 7 users submit a trade?YESṀ250
- Will Gary Lineker present Match of the Day on 18 March 2023?YESṀ200
- Resolves to market plus 69%YESṀ100
- Resolves to market plus 69%YESṀ100
- Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland on 31 December 2022?YESṀ81
- Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland on 31 December 2022?YESṀ68
- Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland on 31 December 2022?YESṀ58
- Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland on 31 December 2022?YESṀ49
99%
- Will Vladimir Zelenskyy meet King Charles while visiting UK?YESṀ1,000
- Resolves YES. I will buy 5 mana of NO every time a new user (to this market) places a trade.YESṀ999
- Will the responder one-box in the other market?YESṀ600
- Will this Market have more than 25 positions by 15th march 6pm GMT? YESṀ581
- Will Vladimir Zelenskyy meet King Charles while visiting UK?YESṀ400
- Will this market stay above 80% for at least 1 hour?YESṀ278
- Will Vladimir Zelenskyy meet King Charles while visiting UK?YESṀ94
- Will the sun rise tomorrow morning?YESṀ50
- Resolves YES. I will buy 5 mana of NO every time a new user (to this market) places a trade.YESṀ10