Fiery Koala's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.87
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Fiery Koala bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
- Will Oppenheimer and Barbie perform historically well at the domestic box office on opening weekend?YESṀ50
- Will an official episode the Destiny and Dan podcast be released before 2024?NOṀ20
- Will Manifold incorporate a chatbot into the Create a Market interface to assist Market Makers with question description and resolution criteria by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%