Will the Ukrainian army launch a large scale counter-offense before June 2023?
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23k
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO

This market resolves to yes if the Ukrainian army makes a clear large scale counter offensive attack against Russia to reclaim their land before the end of May 2023.

Will resolve yes if the counter-offense is clear and obvious before June 1st. Not if there are some probing attacks that may become larger afterwards.


As the resolution is subjective, I will not bet in it.

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predicted YES

eh, ill be real, i would 100% love to argue for my side but i'm disappointed that between yesterday and today there was only the largest drone strike on moscow, followed by a secondary drone strike on a russian oil refinery. Unless there's something else that occured, I don't think you'l be swayed by my arguments, so I'll save it for next time.

Am going to resolve to NO today. Unless someone makes a very good argument.
So far, it's still all probing attacks, seeing where there are weaknesses, being vague about where the offensive will come. All shaping activities. There hasn't been a 'the offensive is happening' or 'there's been a comms silence, nobody can talk' for the last 13 hours, so I see no reason to delay resolution further.

predicted NO

@Fedor When are you going to resolve this market? As far as I can tell, there was ultimately no large-scale move, although definitely some interesting events that hint at the counter-offensive coming soon. What do you think?

@42irrationalist Am intending to resolve it today. Don't see enough ambiguity to keep from resolution.

From what I can tell, Ukraine continues "shaping activities" in advance of the coming counter-offensive. Things are getting interesting with drone attacks and whatnot. The counter-offensive is likely to happen soon (in the next couple of weeks). But overall it looks like there are no clear signs of a "large scale" counter-offensive.

Good time to mention this is an EU timezone market. If they launch the offensive at 11pm today in the Pacific daylight time. Then the market is already closed and that's not included.

2 days and 15% chance feels very generous (I'm assuming offensives don't start today anymore, in an afternoon)

@Fedor Zelensky announced today that the date and time of the counter-offensive has been set. I am personally buying cheap YES shares at 8-10%. My biggest concern is that the counter-offensive might start slowly, so that it wouldn't qualify for a large scale one

“The time has come to take back what’s ours,” Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhny wrote on Telegram this morning. His message was accompanied by a video showing Ukrainian troops preparing for battle.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1662349934148853761?t=bIY9VfCq3p7WOhIHw-vZGg&s=19

A high level Ukrainian official now claims that the counter-offensive has started.

For the purposes of this market, what could be some of the signs that the counter-offensive is a "clear large scale one"?

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/05/25/zelensky-advisor-says-ukraine-s-counteroffensive-has-already-begun

@42irrationalist So they've said the counteroffensive has begun already for a bit, but as it stands I would not count it as large scale counteroffensive.
Yes criteria could be:
Large amounts of territory changing hands ( as noted on the Institute Study of War maps)
Every press outlet is saying 'The counteroffensive is happening!!'

If it is underway, it should be obvious, there's no hiding it.

predicted YES

@Fedor

I agree that this does not feel like "a clear large scale" counter-offensive. Something is brewing but does not seem like enough action has started yet to justify YES resolution. I am betting YES because a lot more can happen in the next few days.

I also feel like this may end up more ambiguous than people realize.

> Large amounts of territory changing hands ( as noted on the Institute Study of War maps)

It's anticipated in advance that this counter-offensive is going to take a while to be successful. Russian forces are a lot more prepared this time, and unlike in Autumn there is no surprise factor: everyone knows that the counter-offensive is going to happen eventually. We probably won't see significant territory reclaimed for a while.

@42irrationalist Might well be, I'm very glad I don't have shares in this market which makes it easier to not be very biased.
A big up tick in the fighting, even if it doesn't conquer territory will also count.

predicted YES

@Fedor Yeah, you not having shares is pretty interesting and makes me more confident you'd handle any ambiguity impartially.

predicted NO

@Fedor
Ukraine has 10 new brigades formed. Supposedly at least.
If a significant number of them join the fighting it should count. I'm voting no, but yeah, it doesn't have to be succesful to count imo, it should be really obvious if a real fight is starting for everyone.