This market resolves to yes if the Ukrainian army makes a clear large scale counter offensive attack against Russia to reclaim their land before the end of May 2023.
Will resolve yes if the counter-offense is clear and obvious before June 1st. Not if there are some probing attacks that may become larger afterwards.
As the resolution is subjective, I will not bet in it.
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eh, ill be real, i would 100% love to argue for my side but i'm disappointed that between yesterday and today there was only the largest drone strike on moscow, followed by a secondary drone strike on a russian oil refinery. Unless there's something else that occured, I don't think you'l be swayed by my arguments, so I'll save it for next time.
Am going to resolve to NO today. Unless someone makes a very good argument.
So far, it's still all probing attacks, seeing where there are weaknesses, being vague about where the offensive will come. All shaping activities. There hasn't been a 'the offensive is happening' or 'there's been a comms silence, nobody can talk' for the last 13 hours, so I see no reason to delay resolution further.
@Fedor When are you going to resolve this market? As far as I can tell, there was ultimately no large-scale move, although definitely some interesting events that hint at the counter-offensive coming soon. What do you think?
@42irrationalist Am intending to resolve it today. Don't see enough ambiguity to keep from resolution.
From what I can tell, Ukraine continues "shaping activities" in advance of the coming counter-offensive. Things are getting interesting with drone attacks and whatnot. The counter-offensive is likely to happen soon (in the next couple of weeks). But overall it looks like there are no clear signs of a "large scale" counter-offensive.
drone strike on moscow... that's gotta count for somethin
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-29-23/h_2d16ea60835b13724faf0fb66d658c37
@Fedor Zelensky announced today that the date and time of the counter-offensive has been set. I am personally buying cheap YES shares at 8-10%. My biggest concern is that the counter-offensive might start slowly, so that it wouldn't qualify for a large scale one
“The time has come to take back what’s ours,” Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhny wrote on Telegram this morning. His message was accompanied by a video showing Ukrainian troops preparing for battle.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1662349934148853761?t=bIY9VfCq3p7WOhIHw-vZGg&s=19
‘The intensity is increasing’: Ukraine says first steps in counteroffensive have begun | Ukraine | The Guardian
Ukraine's commander in chief hints at possible counteroffensive in slick video | CNN
Ukraine updates: Officials signal counteroffensive against Russia (usatoday.com)
Just building some anticipation for it
A high level Ukrainian official now claims that the counter-offensive has started.
For the purposes of this market, what could be some of the signs that the counter-offensive is a "clear large scale one"?
https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/05/25/zelensky-advisor-says-ukraine-s-counteroffensive-has-already-begun
@42irrationalist So they've said the counteroffensive has begun already for a bit, but as it stands I would not count it as large scale counteroffensive.
Yes criteria could be:
Large amounts of territory changing hands ( as noted on the Institute Study of War maps)
Every press outlet is saying 'The counteroffensive is happening!!'
If it is underway, it should be obvious, there's no hiding it.
I agree that this does not feel like "a clear large scale" counter-offensive. Something is brewing but does not seem like enough action has started yet to justify YES resolution. I am betting YES because a lot more can happen in the next few days.
I also feel like this may end up more ambiguous than people realize.
> Large amounts of territory changing hands ( as noted on the Institute Study of War maps)
It's anticipated in advance that this counter-offensive is going to take a while to be successful. Russian forces are a lot more prepared this time, and unlike in Autumn there is no surprise factor: everyone knows that the counter-offensive is going to happen eventually. We probably won't see significant territory reclaimed for a while.
@42irrationalist Might well be, I'm very glad I don't have shares in this market which makes it easier to not be very biased.
A big up tick in the fighting, even if it doesn't conquer territory will also count.
@Fedor Yeah, you not having shares is pretty interesting and makes me more confident you'd handle any ambiguity impartially.
@Fedor
Ukraine has 10 new brigades formed. Supposedly at least.
If a significant number of them join the fighting it should count. I'm voting no, but yeah, it doesn't have to be succesful to count imo, it should be really obvious if a real fight is starting for everyone.