Will more than 2 people get a corona infection right after attending the Lesswrong Community weekend 2023?
resolved Sep 27

After the Lesswrong community weekend happens on September 22-25th, will 2 or more people get covid in the 2 weeks after that?

For context, last year there was 1 reported covid infection in the 2 weeks after the event. Though people are likely to travel from far, sit in public transport and also do other covid-risk things around the community weekend.

The event has 150 people, there will be testing on everyone before entering the event.

Case count might be disclosed by the organisers afterwards, or self reported in telegram chats, they are likely to be reported. Market closes before the weekend happens so the event is useful as a prediction for the people attending. As this market can have some subjectivity, I will not trade in it.

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At least 2 people report testing positive in the 2 days after the weekend. So YES