Espoand's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.88
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Espoand bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $7 on September 8, 2022?YESṀ100
- Will Will Hurd suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast?YESṀ100
- 15. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?YESṀ100