Esca's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -5.79
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Esca bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
- 9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?NOṀ10
- 9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?NOṀ10
- 9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?NOṀ10
20%
30%
40%
- Will any state make it illegal for Tesla to refer to their AI driving systems as "Full Self Driving" by the end of 2023?YESṀ10
- Will any state make it illegal for Tesla to refer to their AI driving systems as "Full Self Driving" by the end of 2023?YESṀ10
- Will any state make it illegal for Tesla to refer to their AI driving systems as "Full Self Driving" by the end of 2023?YESṀ10
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%