Eric Alexander Voolaid's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -10.43
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Eric Alexander Voolaid bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?NOṀ30
- Will Destiny have a 18k viewers Kick stream by the end of April?NOṀ20
- Will Mr. Girl release another article about Destiny in 2023? A second manifesto, if you will. The Destiny Report Part 2.NOṀ10
80%
90%
- Will Destiny's video "Destiny Gets Put On The Spot With Tough 9/11 Question" reach 30k views by 4/13 9 A.M. PST?NOṀ160
- Will Destiny's video "She Said Sneako Has Changed So Destiny Checked His Twitter" reach 60k views by 4/11 9 A.M. PST?NOṀ70
- Will Destiny's video "Destiny Reveals He Had 3 Meetings w/ the FBI" reach 100k views by 4/11 9 A.M. PST?NOṀ70