Emil's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -5.19
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Emil bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?NOṀ475
- Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2023?NOṀ150
70%