Resolution criteria

A blood test developed by the University of East Anglia and Oxford BioDynamics achieved 96% accuracy in diagnosing ME/CFS, published in the Journal of Translational Medicine in October 2025. This market resolves YES if a larger replication study demonstrates comparable accuracy (≥80% sensitivity and specificity combined, or ≥85% accuracy) in a cohort of at least 200 participants. The study must be published in a peer-reviewed journal or preprint server by December 31, 2030. Resolution will be based on the reported accuracy metrics in the published study.

Background

ME/CFS is a debilitating condition affecting millions worldwide, including over 400,000 in the UK. There is currently no single test to diagnose ME/CFS, making the condition difficult to diagnose as most symptoms are shared with other diseases. The initial study identified a distinctive genomic pattern in affected individuals by examining the 3D architecture of DNA, uncovering hundreds of biological differences including five of the eight genetic regions previously identified by the DecodeME study.

Considerations

The initial study's small cohort (47 severe ME/CFS patients and 61 healthy controls) and focus on only severe cases limit its current reliability as a biomarker. Experts have noted the need for additional large-scale studies to validate accuracy and reproducibility, and to determine how well the test distinguishes ME/CFS from other causes of chronic fatigue. For clinical application, the specificity of these biomarkers to ME/CFS needs to be explored in more disease controls.