Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by August 7, 2025, DecodeME publicly announces the identification of one or more genes as highly correlated with Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS). The announcement must be made through official channels such as the DecodeME website. If no such announcement is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

DecodeME is the world's largest genetic study into ME/CFS, aiming to uncover genetic factors contributing to the condition. The study has recruited over 26,000 participants and is analyzing DNA samples to identify genetic associations with ME/CFS. Results are anticipated to be released before the study's completion on August 6th 2025. (actionforme.org.uk)

Considerations

Previous genetic studies on ME/CFS have faced challenges due to small sample sizes and broad diagnostic criteria, often resulting in inconclusive findings. DecodeME's large cohort and rigorous methodology aim to overcome these limitations, potentially leading to significant discoveries regarding the genetic basis of ME/CFS. (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)

Resolution

DecodeME identified eight loci as “significantly” associated with ME/CFS. Using public data, DecodeME has identified which genes are likely relevant but not conclusively. While very close, this does not seem to meet the high bar the question demanded.

Results on DecodeME website

Results preprint