Elliot Hagan's calibration
Grade: C-, Score: -7.64
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Elliot Hagan bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
- Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $650 million domestically by January 31, 2023?NOṀ10
- Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $650 million domestically by January 31, 2023?NOṀ10
- Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $650 million domestically by January 31, 2023?NOṀ10
70%