This market resolves to YES if Amazon makes a formal, public bid to acquire Snap Inc. (parent company of Snapchat) before December 31, 2025.

Recent reports indicate Snap's stock has seen significant movement amid buyout rumors, with its current market valuation of approximately $14 billion making it a potentially attractive acquisition target. Amazon has previously shown interest in social media acquisitions, most notably Twitch in 2014 for $970 million, and has recently been reported to have bid for TikTok's US operations.

Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to YES if credible news sources (Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, CNBC, etc.) report that Amazon has made a formal offer to acquire Snap Inc. It resolves to NO if no such offer is made public by the end of 2025.

Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, by 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on December 31, 2025, Amazon.com, Inc. (or a wholly owned subsidiary) makes a formal, public offer to acquire Snap Inc. (NYSE: SNAP). Accepted evidence:

  • An official press release from Amazon or Snap announcing a tender offer or signed merger agreement (definitive or binding) to acquire majority control of Snap. Sources: Amazon press center and Snap IR. (press.aboutamazon.com)

  • An SEC filing by either party disclosing a tender offer (e.g., Schedule TO) or a definitive agreement/offer (e.g., Form 8‑K, 10‑K/10‑Q subsequent events). Source: SEC EDGAR company filings (Amazon; Snap). (sec.gov)

  • Alternatively, at least two top‑tier outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, CNBC) report that Amazon has made a formal offer with specific terms to acquire Snap. Example company page: Reuters SNAP.N. (jp.reuters.com)

• “Formal offer” means a publicly disclosed tender offer or a publicly announced proposal/agreement specifying consideration to acquire >50% of Snap’s equity or otherwise obtain control.

• Exclusions: rumors, “talks,” interest without an offer, strategic partnerships, minority investments, or asset-only purchases (e.g., the Snapchat app without Snap Inc.) do not count. An offer later withdrawn still resolves YES if it met the above by the deadline. If no qualifying offer is public by the deadline, resolves NO on January 1, 2026.

Background

• Snap Inc. is the parent of Snapchat and is publicly traded; official announcements appear on Snap’s investor relations site. (investor.snap.com)

• Amazon has pursued social/video acquisitions before, notably acquiring Twitch for about $970M in 2014. (press.aboutamazon.com)

• Snap uses a multi‑class share structure: Class A shares are non‑voting; founders Evan Spiegel and Bobby Murphy collectively control >99% of voting power. (sec.gov)

Considerations

• Due to Snap’s voting control, a hostile bid is unlikely to succeed without founder support; this market resolves on the bid being made, not on deal completion. (sec.gov)

• Regulatory approvals (e.g., HSR/antitrust) are not required for YES; only a qualifying public offer by the deadline is required.

• Note on timing: Despite the title saying “by 2026,” this market resolves based on offers made on or before December 31, 2025, 11:59:59 pm ET.