Eel13's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.43
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Eel13 bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
- Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?NOṀ30
- Will any sitting U.S. Senator be charged with a crime while in office by the end of 2023?YESṀ10
- A defendant in a felony case in the United States will use an "AI Told Me to Do It" defense before the end of 2023YESṀ10
30%
50%
70%
- During the 118th Congress, will the House hold a vote on removing the Speaker of the House?YESṀ30
- Will Trump tweet before a nuclear detonation occurs?YESṀ20
- Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2023 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago?YESṀ10